Category Archives: Forecasting

The 2005 Teviot floods: then and now

As previously reported Storm Desmond caused severe flooding over the weekend of the 5th and 6th December in parts of the country including the Teviot Valley. The River Teviot in Hawick recorded its second highest river flow on record and … Continue reading

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Storm Desmond – Scotland’s first red flood risk

Over the weekend of 5 – 6 December 2015 Storm Desmond – the fourth UK named storm of the winter season – brought damaging winds and heavy rain across Scotland, which experienced its most severe flood event since the advent … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Uncategorized, Weather prediction | 2 Comments

Decision making in times of uncertainty: the crying wolf

Nikéh Booister presents the second and final part of this series on decision making in times of uncertainty. “The forecaster has to be the expert on knowing what uncertainties are and where they come from as we could have read … Continue reading

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Decision making in times of uncertainty: the forecaster

In a two-part feature, we cover various roles involved in decision making at times of uncertainty. The first is provided by Paul Ryles, Senior Scientist and operational flood forecaster at SEPA. “Flood prediction is a science, especially in challenging situations such … Continue reading

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Flood forecasting: current challenges and future aspirations

How can flood forecasting best rise to the challenges and opportunities that communities and partners face; at what point does effort in flood forecasting become less effective than local adaptation; and what are the aspirations and capability of our future … Continue reading

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Heavy Rainfall Alerts – latest advances

In order to provide probabilistic forecasts of flooding from surface water the forecasting service has been using a Heavy Rainfall Alert (HRA) tool since 2013, as discussed in a previous article. The tool consists of a spreadsheet that is updated … Continue reading

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The July Perthshire floods: hydrometeorological predictions

A major clean-up operation is underway following flooding that affected some Perthshire communities on the 17th July 2015. Villages such as Bankfoot were affected and surface water flooding was seen across much of the road network; however the flooding impacts were most … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrometeorology, Risk communication, Weather prediction | 1 Comment

Surface Water Flooding in Aberdeen

As noted in previous articles surface water flooding can be challenging to forecast. On Tuesday 7th July a period of intense rainfall over Aberdeen and the surrounding area led to significant surface water flooding. The forecasting service was able to … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Surface Water | 2 Comments

The European Flood Awareness System – 2015 annual meeting

Last month I attended the 10th annual partners meeting of the European Flood Awareness System, of which the forecasting service is a member. EFAS provides forecasts across Europe, using a gridded LISFLOOD model fed by deterministic and probabilistic rainfall forecasts from ECMWF. Alerts … Continue reading

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Natural hazards: prediction and early warning on various scales

The 2015 General Assembly of the European Geoscience Union provided an opportunity to share challenges and innovation in the prediction and early warning of natural hazards.  Although flooding was a key topic area, other hazards featured which all have synergies  across the … Continue reading

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