Category Archives: Forecasting
Challenges and innovation towards the prediction of natural hazards
The 2016 European Geosciences Union General Assembly saw us co-convene our second PICO (Presenting Interactive Content) session on operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards. Along with several other sessions in hydrological forecasting there were plenty of take home … Continue reading
SFFS at the EFAS Annual Meeting, April 2016
The flood forecasting service in Scotland is a partner of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS); a EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) service which provides probabilistic flood forecast information to more than 48 member organisations across Europe based on the … Continue reading
Storm Frank-Short Range Forecast Performance
On the 30th December, 2015, new maximum peak levels were recorded on the Rivers Cree, Dee and upper Tweed due to rainfall which fell overnight from the 29th to the 30th December associated with Storm Frank; an unusually deep area … Continue reading
Storm Frank – how was the medium range flood guidance?
The rainfall associated with Storm Frank on 30 December 2015 caused some of the most severe flooding seen in Scotland for many years, particularly along the river Dee in Aberdeenshire and the rivers Cree and Nith in Dumfries and Galloway, … Continue reading
RAINS: Radar Applications in Northern Scotland
The past two months have brought significant rainfall across much of Scotland resulting in some severe disruption due to the impacts of flooding. Impacts have been seen in early December with Storm Desmond, through to Storm Frank which brought major … Continue reading
The 2005 Teviot floods: then and now
As previously reported Storm Desmond caused severe flooding over the weekend of the 5th and 6th December in parts of the country including the Teviot Valley. The River Teviot in Hawick recorded its second highest river flow on record and … Continue reading
Storm Desmond – Scotland’s first red flood risk
Over the weekend of 5 – 6 December 2015 Storm Desmond – the fourth UK named storm of the winter season – brought damaging winds and heavy rain across Scotland, which experienced its most severe flood event since the advent … Continue reading
Decision making in times of uncertainty: the crying wolf
Nikéh Booister presents the second and final part of this series on decision making in times of uncertainty. “The forecaster has to be the expert on knowing what uncertainties are and where they come from as we could have read … Continue reading
Decision making in times of uncertainty: the forecaster
In a two-part feature, we cover various roles involved in decision making at times of uncertainty. The first is provided by Paul Ryles, Senior Scientist and operational flood forecaster at SEPA. “Flood prediction is a science, especially in challenging situations such … Continue reading
Flood forecasting: current challenges and future aspirations
How can flood forecasting best rise to the challenges and opportunities that communities and partners face; at what point does effort in flood forecasting become less effective than local adaptation; and what are the aspirations and capability of our future … Continue reading
