Category Archives: Probabilistic

High Impact Weather and Climate Conference

High Impact Weather and Climate was the subject of the conference held by Royal Meteorological Society and National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Manchester last week. Members of the forecasting service attended, along with many colleagues from … Continue reading

Posted in Conference, Flood, Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication | Leave a comment

The 2005 Teviot floods: then and now

As previously reported Storm Desmond caused severe flooding over the weekend of the 5th and 6th December in parts of the country including the Teviot Valley. The River Teviot in Hawick recorded its second highest river flow on record and … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrometeorology, Probabilistic, Risk communication | Leave a comment

Decision making in times of uncertainty: the crying wolf

Nikéh Booister presents the second and final part of this series on decision making in times of uncertainty. “The forecaster has to be the expert on knowing what uncertainties are and where they come from as we could have read … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication | Leave a comment

Heavy Rainfall Alerts – latest advances

In order to provide probabilistic forecasts of flooding from surface water the forecasting service has been using a Heavy Rainfall Alert (HRA) tool since 2013, as discussed in a previous article. The tool consists of a spreadsheet that is updated … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication, Surface Water | Leave a comment

Hydrometeorological forecasting and ex-tropical storm Bertha

On Monday 11th August, the remnants of the ex-tropical storm Bertha brought heavy and very intense rain for many parts of northern Scotland. Early indications are that over 100 mm of rain was recorded over a 12 to 16 hour … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrometeorology, Probabilistic, Risk communication | 3 Comments

Staying alert in rain or shine

Last summer our Met Office coordinator Pete Buchanan produced a couple of articles about surface water flooding. In the second article he explained how our Heavy Rainfall Alert (HRA) Tool works. Here he gives us an update on further development of … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication, Surface Water, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Forecasting from Sea to Shore (Part 1): Learning from the past

In a winter that witnessed a succession of storms that have affected many parts of the UK, calls are being made to understand what lessons should be learnt in order to be better prepared for future storms.  Given the longevity … Continue reading

Posted in Coastal, Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication | 3 Comments