Category Archives: Probabilistic

Meteorological forecast data: define what’s best!

Following earlier posts on the Heavy Rainfall Alert tool, Peter Buchanan our Met Office forecasting service co-ordinator explains ‘what is best data!’ “The Met Office has had an operational numerical modelling capability for many years now. It runs a plethora … Continue reading

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Forecasting with higher resolution rainfall forecasts; this winter’s first test

The flood forecasting service has been using Met Office ‘BestData’ rainfall forecasts in its hydrological forecasts since summer 2013. For deterministic forecasts this is a fairly straightforward amalgamation of gridded 1.5km UKV to 36 hours, and 4km Euro4 data out to 120 … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, G2G, Probabilistic, Risk communication, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Hydrometeorological science: forecasting in rapid response catchments

The problem of flash flooding from highland rivers is one with which the village of Comrie is all too familiar.  More than 100 homes were evacuated in storms in August 2012 and once again that year in November.  Some flood … Continue reading

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Quick as a ‘flash’ (Part 2)

Following the earlier article on the challenges of surface water alerting, Peter Buchanan discusses emerging science developments being used by the flood forecasting service in Scotland. “How does the Heavy Rainfall Alert tool work? In essence, it searches for instances … Continue reading

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Quick as a ‘flash’ (Part 1)

Peter Buchanan, the Met Office flood forecasting service coordinator, describes one of the key priority areas for forecasting science development. “One of the greatest challenges facing the flood forecasting community for the foreseeable future is surface water or pluvial flooding … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Probabilistic, Weather prediction | 3 Comments

Uncertainty in flooding predictions – can probabilistic forecasts help?

At a recent hydrology conference we ran an experiment in flood forecasting. The experiment investigated whether probabilistic information improved decision making. Participants were presented with six forecast hydrographs and were asked to decide whether to open the upstream flood gates … Continue reading

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