Category Archives: Probabilistic

Quick as a ‘flash’ (Part 2)

Following the earlier article on the challenges of surface water alerting, Peter Buchanan discusses emerging science developments being used by the flood forecasting service in Scotland. “How does the Heavy Rainfall Alert tool work? In essence, it searches for instances … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Weather prediction | 6 Comments

Quick as a ‘flash’ (Part 1)

Peter Buchanan, the Met Office flood forecasting service coordinator, describes one of the key priority areas for forecasting science development. “One of the greatest challenges facing the flood forecasting community for the foreseeable future is surface water or pluvial flooding … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Probabilistic, Weather prediction | 3 Comments

Uncertainty in flooding predictions – can probabilistic forecasts help?

At a recent hydrology conference we ran an experiment in flood forecasting. The experiment investigated whether probabilistic information improved decision making. Participants were presented with six forecast hydrographs and were asked to decide whether to open the upstream flood gates … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication | 1 Comment