Science

Surface water flood forecasting for urban communities: A Review
November 2013
Our research project with CREW, JHI, CEH and the Met Office titled “Surface water flood forecasting for urban communities” aims to run a real-time pilot system for surface water flood forecasting during the Glasgow Commonwealth Games 2014 and assist SEPA in increasing surface water flood forecasting capabilities. Two detailed review reports have been produced considering the advances in rainfall estimation, forecasting techniques, and current surface water flood modelling techniques. These reviews are informing the next stage of the project, an overview of which is given in this report.

The use of radar, nowcast and numerical weather prediction in rainfall runoff modelling in Scotland
International Conference on Flood Resilience, Exeter, 2013
Flood forecasting in Scotland is continually developing. Radar, nowcast and deterministic and probabilistic numerical weather prediction (NWP) are used in rainfall runoff modelling at national and catchment scales. This poster uses a recent case study to illustrate the value of these forecasting approaches and the challenges associated with providing flood warnings to communities at risk from flash flooding. View the full poster here

The use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting in countrywide flood guidance in Scotland
BHS Eleventh National Symposium, Hydrology for a changing world, Dundee 2012
This paper presents operational application of a physical-conceptual distributed hydrological model on a countrywide basis across Scotland. Grid-to-Grid principally runs in deterministic mode and employs radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall together with weather model predictions to produce forecast river flows, as gridded time-series at a resolution of 1 km and for up to five days ahead. Read the full paper

Countrywide flood forecasting in Scotland: challenges for hydrometeorological model uncertainty and prediction
Weather Radar and Hydrology, IAHS Publ. 351, 2012
The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service, a new partnership between the Met Office and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, aims to make best use of weather and river forecasting expertise in providing improved flood resilience and vigilance for emergency responders across Scotland. Read the abstract