Category Archives: Forecasting

SFFS at the EFAS Annual Meeting, April 2016

Posted on April 17, 2016 by louisemparry

The flood forecasting service in Scotland is a partner of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS); a EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) service which provides probabilistic flood forecast information to more than 48 member organisations across Europe based on the … Continue reading →

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Storm Frank-Short Range Forecast Performance

Posted on March 15, 2016 by louisemparry

On the 30th December, 2015, new maximum peak levels were recorded on the Rivers Cree, Dee and upper Tweed due to rainfall which fell overnight from the 29th to the 30th December associated with Storm Frank; an unusually deep area … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, G2G, Hydrometeorology, Risk communication, Weather prediction | 2 Comments

Storm Frank – how was the medium range flood guidance?

Posted on February 19, 2016 by Richard Maxey

The rainfall associated with Storm Frank on 30 December 2015 caused some of the most severe flooding seen in Scotland for many years, particularly along the river Dee in Aberdeenshire and the rivers Cree and Nith in Dumfries and Galloway, … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Risk communication, Uncategorized, Weather prediction | 2 Comments

RAINS: Radar Applications in Northern Scotland

Posted on February 3, 2016 by michaeldcranston

The past two months have brought significant rainfall across much of Scotland resulting in some severe disruption due to the impacts of flooding.  Impacts have been seen in early December with Storm Desmond, through to Storm Frank which brought major … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Hydrometeorology, Radar, Research | Leave a comment

The 2005 Teviot floods: then and now

Posted on December 17, 2015 by michaeldcranston

As previously reported Storm Desmond caused severe flooding over the weekend of the 5th and 6th December in parts of the country including the Teviot Valley. The River Teviot in Hawick recorded its second highest river flow on record and … Continue reading →

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Storm Desmond – Scotland’s first red flood risk

Posted on December 14, 2015 by Richard Maxey

Over the weekend of 5 – 6 December 2015 Storm Desmond – the fourth UK named storm of the winter season – brought damaging winds and heavy rain across Scotland, which experienced its most severe flood event since the advent … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Uncategorized, Weather prediction | 2 Comments

Decision making in times of uncertainty: the crying wolf

Posted on November 12, 2015 by michaeldcranston

Nikéh Booister presents the second and final part of this series on decision making in times of uncertainty. “The forecaster has to be the expert on knowing what uncertainties are and where they come from as we could have read … Continue reading →

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Decision making in times of uncertainty: the forecaster

Posted on November 12, 2015 by michaeldcranston

In a two-part feature, we cover various roles involved in decision making at times of uncertainty. The first is provided by Paul Ryles, Senior Scientist and operational flood forecaster at SEPA. “Flood prediction is a science, especially in challenging situations such … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Hydrometeorology, Risk communication | 1 Comment

Flood forecasting: current challenges and future aspirations

Posted on October 7, 2015 by michaeldcranston

How can flood forecasting best rise to the challenges and opportunities that communities and partners face; at what point does effort in flood forecasting become less effective than local adaptation; and what are the aspirations and capability of our future … Continue reading →

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Heavy Rainfall Alerts – latest advances

Posted on August 27, 2015 by Richard Maxey

In order to provide probabilistic forecasts of flooding from surface water the forecasting service has been using a Heavy Rainfall Alert (HRA) tool since 2013, as discussed in a previous article. The tool consists of a spreadsheet that is updated … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication, Surface Water | Leave a comment