Author Archives: michaeldcranston

Decision making in times of uncertainty: the crying wolf

Nikéh Booister presents the second and final part of this series on decision making in times of uncertainty. “The forecaster has to be the expert on knowing what uncertainties are and where they come from as we could have read … Continue reading

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Decision making in times of uncertainty: the forecaster

In a two-part feature, we cover various roles involved in decision making at times of uncertainty. The first is provided by Paul Ryles, Senior Scientist and operational flood forecaster at SEPA. “Flood prediction is a science, especially in challenging situations such … Continue reading

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Flood forecasting: current challenges and future aspirations

How can flood forecasting best rise to the challenges and opportunities that communities and partners face; at what point does effort in flood forecasting become less effective than local adaptation; and what are the aspirations and capability of our future … Continue reading

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The July Perthshire floods: hydrometeorological predictions

A major clean-up operation is underway following flooding that affected some Perthshire communities on the 17th July 2015. Villages such as Bankfoot were affected and surface water flooding was seen across much of the road network; however the flooding impacts were most … Continue reading

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrometeorology, Risk communication, Weather prediction | 1 Comment

Hydrology of Scotland: some hydrometric perspectives

Dr. Andrew Black contributes the final piece of our two-part feature on the climatology and hydrology of Scotland. It’s rare to be invited to offer some personal perspectives on matters hydrological, but gives a useful chance to reflect.  It’s almost 20 … Continue reading

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The Climatology of Scotland – four seasons in one day?

Martyn Sunter contributes the first of a two-part feature on the climatology and hydrology of Scotland. Having worked for the Met Office in Scotland since 1994 I have experienced the challenges of monitoring and forecasting our interesting weather and climate. Here … Continue reading

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Natural hazards: prediction and early warning on various scales

The 2015 General Assembly of the European Geoscience Union provided an opportunity to share challenges and innovation in the prediction and early warning of natural hazards.  Although flooding was a key topic area, other hazards featured which all have synergies  across the … Continue reading

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Game over?

Article by Peter Buchanan, Met Office On Tuesday 15 July 2014, the Met Office implemented ‘ENDGame’ physics into the dynamical core of its global atmospheric forecast model. This was the culmination of many years of research and development and two … Continue reading

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Hydrological Forecasting and Natural Hazards at EGU 2015

Attending the European Geosciences Union Assembly this year?  If you’re a first-time visitor to the event, which attracts over 12,000 delegates, then check out the GeoLog’s guide on what to expect. If you are attending then why not join us in our Thursday morning session … Continue reading

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#FRMis10: Future flood risk management strategies

When the inaugural SNIFFER Flood Risk Management conference was convened in 2005 many of the current approaches to flood risk management were very much in their infancy – if at all conceived. 10 years on and the ‘FRMis10’ conference agenda– … Continue reading

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