Author Archives: michaeldcranston

Operational forecasting and hazard early warning systems: Call for Abstracts at #vEGU21!

Posted on December 7, 2020 by michaeldcranston

With a couple of weeks to go before the EGU abstract deadline (13th Jan. 2021, 13.00 CET), it’s time to consider submitting that abstract! If you working in the field of operational forecasting and warning for hazards then consider this … Continue reading →

Posted in Conference, EGU, Forecasting, Natural Hazards | 1 Comment

Exploring an impact-based approach to flood forecasting

Posted on September 25, 2020 by michaeldcranston

As we’ve previously reported on here, many parts of the North and West Highlands of Scotland can be spared major flooding impacts even when significant rainfall (100 to 200 mm) can fall. In October 2018, although the town of Oban … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Partnerships, Research, Surface Water | Leave a comment

Operational Forecasting Across the Globe: Sharing Science at EGU20

Posted on May 27, 2020 by michaeldcranston

For several years the ‘operational forecasting and warning systems‘ PICO session has been a popular feature of the EGU hydrological sciences program.  However, with restrictions on travel and meetings in place due to Covid-19, the whole of the 2020 Assembly … Continue reading →

Posted in Communications, Conference, EGU, Forecasting, Hydrometeorology, Research | Leave a comment

Challenges and innovation towards the prediction of natural hazards

Posted on April 26, 2016 by michaeldcranston

The 2016 European Geosciences Union General Assembly saw us co-convene our second PICO (Presenting Interactive Content) session on operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards. Along with several other sessions in hydrological forecasting there were plenty of take home … Continue reading →

Posted in EGU, Flood, Forecasting, Natural Hazards | 1 Comment

RAINS: Radar Applications in Northern Scotland

Posted on February 3, 2016 by michaeldcranston

The past two months have brought significant rainfall across much of Scotland resulting in some severe disruption due to the impacts of flooding.  Impacts have been seen in early December with Storm Desmond, through to Storm Frank which brought major … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Hydrometeorology, Radar, Research | Leave a comment

The 2005 Teviot floods: then and now

Posted on December 17, 2015 by michaeldcranston

As previously reported Storm Desmond caused severe flooding over the weekend of the 5th and 6th December in parts of the country including the Teviot Valley. The River Teviot in Hawick recorded its second highest river flow on record and … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrometeorology, Probabilistic, Risk communication | Leave a comment

Decision making in times of uncertainty: the crying wolf

Posted on November 12, 2015 by michaeldcranston

Nikéh Booister presents the second and final part of this series on decision making in times of uncertainty. “The forecaster has to be the expert on knowing what uncertainties are and where they come from as we could have read … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication | Leave a comment

Decision making in times of uncertainty: the forecaster

Posted on November 12, 2015 by michaeldcranston

In a two-part feature, we cover various roles involved in decision making at times of uncertainty. The first is provided by Paul Ryles, Senior Scientist and operational flood forecaster at SEPA. “Flood prediction is a science, especially in challenging situations such … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Hydrometeorology, Risk communication | 1 Comment

Flood forecasting: current challenges and future aspirations

Posted on October 7, 2015 by michaeldcranston

How can flood forecasting best rise to the challenges and opportunities that communities and partners face; at what point does effort in flood forecasting become less effective than local adaptation; and what are the aspirations and capability of our future … Continue reading →

Posted in Conference, Forecasting, Hydrometeorology, Risk communication | Leave a comment

The July Perthshire floods: hydrometeorological predictions

Posted on July 23, 2015 by michaeldcranston

A major clean-up operation is underway following flooding that affected some Perthshire communities on the 17th July 2015. Villages such as Bankfoot were affected and surface water flooding was seen across much of the road network; however the flooding impacts were most … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrometeorology, Risk communication, Weather prediction | 1 Comment