Category Archives: Forecasting

Tracking medium range flow forecasts from day to day

Posted on October 31, 2013 by Richard Maxey

One of the challenges we face in the forecasting service when looking at flow outputs modelled from high resolution rainfall forecasts is knowing when to act – Just because we see a realistic looking peak on a forecast at day … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrology, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Forecasting with higher resolution rainfall forecasts; this winter’s first test

Posted on October 11, 2013 by Richard Maxey

The flood forecasting service has been using Met Office ‘BestData’ rainfall forecasts in its hydrological forecasts since summer 2013. For deterministic forecasts this is a fairly straightforward amalgamation of gridded 1.5km UKV to 36 hours, and 4km Euro4 data out to 120 … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, G2G, Probabilistic, Risk communication, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Hydrometeorological science: forecasting in rapid response catchments

Posted on August 31, 2013 by michaeldcranston

The problem of flash flooding from highland rivers is one with which the village of Comrie is all too familiar.  More than 100 homes were evacuated in storms in August 2012 and once again that year in November.  Some flood … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, G2G, Probabilistic, Research | Leave a comment

Recent flood impacts and forecasts: how well did we do?

Posted on August 5, 2013 by lindaspeight

You don’t have to look very far over the past few weeks to find people complaining about being caught out by heavy rainfall and flash flooding that wasn’t forecast, however the forecast from the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service and the … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Surface Water | Leave a comment

Surface water flood alerting for the Commonwealth Games

Posted on July 25, 2013 by lindaspeight

Following the previous posts on flash flood forecasting, the next step is to investigate how recent advances in the science of forecasting heavy rain shower events could be translated into a surface water alerting tool for responders. Surface water (or pluvial) flooding occurs … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Research, Surface Water | 6 Comments

Conference Season

Posted on July 18, 2013 by lindaspeight

At the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service we are continually developing our tools and knowledge as we strive to be at the forefront of flood forecasting science. You can hear more about our development work at a number of conferences and … Continue reading →

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Quick as a ‘flash’ (Part 2)

Posted on July 15, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Following the earlier article on the challenges of surface water alerting, Peter Buchanan discusses emerging science developments being used by the flood forecasting service in Scotland. “How does the Heavy Rainfall Alert tool work? In essence, it searches for instances … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Weather prediction | 7 Comments

Identifying Flood Hazards in Real Time

Posted on July 5, 2013 by Richard Maxey

SFFS currently have the capability to forecast flows “everywhere” in Scotland, at a 1km grid scale up to five days ahead, using the Grid to Grid model. This includes calculation of snow fall and melt, and the production of probabilistic … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, G2G, Hydrology, Risk communication | 2 Comments

Uncertainty in flooding predictions – can probabilistic forecasts help?

Posted on May 18, 2013 by michaeldcranston

At a recent hydrology conference we ran an experiment in flood forecasting. The experiment investigated whether probabilistic information improved decision making. Participants were presented with six forecast hydrographs and were asked to decide whether to open the upstream flood gates … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication | 1 Comment

EGU General Assembly 2013

Posted on April 16, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Hydrologists involved in SFFS have contributed a paper for this years EGU.  A joint paper with CEH Wallingford was accepted for the session on hydrology for decision-making: the value of forecasts, predictions, scenarios, outlooks and foresights. The session included papers on … Continue reading →

Posted in Conference, EGU, Flood, Forecasting | Leave a comment