Author Archives: michaeldcranston

Coupling meteorological and hydrological forecasting models: the Canadian case

Posted on February 21, 2014 by michaeldcranston

In June 2013 the city of Calgary and state of Alberta witnessed devastating flooding with four fatalities and over 100,000 people evacuated from their homes. It’s difficult to comprehend flooding on this scale in Scotland but comparing this to the … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Forecasting, Hydrometeorology, Weather prediction | 1 Comment

Meteorological forecast data: define what’s best!

Posted on February 5, 2014 by michaeldcranston

Following earlier posts on the Heavy Rainfall Alert tool, Peter Buchanan our Met Office forecasting service co-ordinator explains ‘what is best data!’ “The Met Office has had an operational numerical modelling capability for many years now. It runs a plethora … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Weather prediction | 1 Comment

Forecasts for the December 2013 Dumfriesshire Floods

Posted on December 31, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Recovery activities are under way following the floods that badly affected parts of Dumfries and Galloway on Monday 29th December. Seven were rescued from their farmhouse after the River Nith flooded large parts of Nithsdale and Dumfries.  Flooding started in … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Coastal flood forecasting in Scotland: what’s new?

Posted on November 8, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Coastal flood forecasting has not featured much as a discussion topic on this site, which doesn’t truly reflect the growing work in this area.  Coastal flooding in Scotland represents 17% of the total flood risk in the country and flood warning … Continue reading →

Posted in Coastal, Forecasting | Leave a comment

High Impact Weather: Working in Partnership

Posted on September 9, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Day 1 at the European Meteorological Society annual conference and one of the key messages from John Hirst’s opening keynote speech was for the need for clear, joined up, communication of the risk of severe weather impacts. This Reading-based EMS event … Continue reading →

Posted in Conference, Research, Risk communication, Uncategorized, Weather prediction | Leave a comment

Hydrometeorological science: forecasting in rapid response catchments

Posted on August 31, 2013 by michaeldcranston

The problem of flash flooding from highland rivers is one with which the village of Comrie is all too familiar.  More than 100 homes were evacuated in storms in August 2012 and once again that year in November.  Some flood … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, G2G, Probabilistic, Research | Leave a comment

Quick as a ‘flash’ (Part 2)

Posted on July 15, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Following the earlier article on the challenges of surface water alerting, Peter Buchanan discusses emerging science developments being used by the flood forecasting service in Scotland. “How does the Heavy Rainfall Alert tool work? In essence, it searches for instances … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Weather prediction | 7 Comments

Quick as a ‘flash’ (Part 1)

Posted on July 4, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Peter Buchanan, the Met Office flood forecasting service coordinator, describes one of the key priority areas for forecasting science development. “One of the greatest challenges facing the flood forecasting community for the foreseeable future is surface water or pluvial flooding … Continue reading →

Posted in Flood, Probabilistic, Weather prediction | 4 Comments

Uncertainty in flooding predictions – can probabilistic forecasts help?

Posted on May 18, 2013 by michaeldcranston

At a recent hydrology conference we ran an experiment in flood forecasting. The experiment investigated whether probabilistic information improved decision making. Participants were presented with six forecast hydrographs and were asked to decide whether to open the upstream flood gates … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Probabilistic, Risk communication | 1 Comment

EGU General Assembly 2013

Posted on April 16, 2013 by michaeldcranston

Hydrologists involved in SFFS have contributed a paper for this years EGU.  A joint paper with CEH Wallingford was accepted for the session on hydrology for decision-making: the value of forecasts, predictions, scenarios, outlooks and foresights. The session included papers on … Continue reading →

Posted in Conference, EGU, Flood, Forecasting | Leave a comment