Forecasts for the December 2013 Dumfriesshire Floods

Dumfries

Flooding of the Whitesands area of Dumfries affecting several homes and businesses (Source: BBC)

Recovery activities are under way following the floods that badly affected parts of Dumfries and Galloway on Monday 29th December. Seven were rescued from their farmhouse after the River Nith flooded large parts of Nithsdale and Dumfries.  Flooding started in the early hours of Monday affecting 40 properties in Kirkconnel followed by flooding of the Whitesands area of Dumfries.

Mogreps

MOGREPS-UK weather prediction model from Sunday 29th December highlighting a 80% probability of greater than 40 mm in 12 hours for the hills of Galloway at a 29 hour lead time. (Copyright Met Office)

Scotland’s Environment Minister praised the efforts of responders in their attempts to mitigate the impacts of the flooding from rivers following the various alerts and warnings that were issued.  Indications on Saturday and early on Sunday was for a low likelihood of some significant flooding impacts for parts of south west Scotland.  Confidence grew during Sunday for the greater potential in flooding severity with meteorological and hydrological models all providing a strong signal for flooding impacts across Ayrshire, Peebleshire and in particular Dumfries and Galloway.  Output from the MOGREPS-UK model highlighted an area of 40 to 50 mm in 12 hours with some models suggesting isolated totals over 70 mm. This resulted in an Amber national severe weather warning being issued supported by the Flood Guidance Statement.

Rainfall data across the 24 hours has highlighted spot totals of over 50 mm with some isolated SEPA gauges having recorded over 70 mm and one river gauge on the Nith having recorded its highest level on record.  Unfortunately with further low pressure systems expected it looks like 2014 may start with continued heightened concerns about the risk of flooding.

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One Response to Forecasts for the December 2013 Dumfriesshire Floods

  1. Pingback: The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service: 2014 in review | Scottish Flood Forecasting Service

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